An Alternative to the BDS Test: Integration Across The Correlation Integral

This paper extends and generalizes the BDS test presented by Brock, Dechert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996). In doing so it aims to remove the limitation of having to arbitrarily select a proximity parameter by integrating across the correlation integral. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to tabulate critical values of the alternative statistic. Previously published empirical studies are replicated as well as power tests executed in order to evaluate the relative performance of the suggested alternative to the BDS test. The results are favorable for the suggested alternative.chaos, nonlinear dynamics, correlation integral, Monte Carlo, exchange rates

Development of Ownership Structure and its Effect on Performance: Czech Firms from Mass Privatization

This paper works with a broad data sample of Czech voucher-privatized firms during 1996 - 1999. It analyzes the development of ownership structure and consequently its effect on a firm's performance Ownership concentration had been quite high in 1996 and steadily increased. The single largest owner was found to be a decisive shareholder. Industrial companies have been the most stable shareholder and recorded the largest ownership gains. Ownership concentration alone does not explain a change in a firm’s performance and no industry sector was found to have a specific effect on it. We found evidence that several types of owners have an effect on certain performance measures. However, there does not exist support that type of owner has an effect on a firm's performance in general.Ownership structure, firm's performance, voucher privatization, type of owner, panel data

Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non- existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic univariate time series. The procedure does not impose restrictions on the nature of data since it allows trending and unit- root regressors. The results depend in a striking way on the economic climate of a particular country. In Balkan countries, which belong to less stable economies, the measures adopted by monetary authorities indeed brought about a structural break in exchange rate behavior. In more stable transition economies, such as those in Central Europe, the monetary steps tended to stabilize the exchange rate behavior. Finally, the exchange rates of the Baltic countries offer mixed results.Exchange rate, Transition, Structural change, Monetary policy

Disparities of Exchange Rates in CEE Countries

This paper analyzes disparities among nominal and real exchange rate movements across the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 1991 to 1996. The method of analyzing such processes is to examine whether the differentials of exchange rate changes converge or diverge over time. Currently nine countries in Central and Eastern Europe have formally applied for full membership in the European Union. The results support convergence in general, but indicate a wide disparity in the degree of convergence. From the real exchange rate standpoint the paper identifies the best candidates to join the European Union in the first round of accession.Exchange rates, Convergence, Transition, European Union

Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non-existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic univariate time series. The procedure does not impose restrictions on the nature of data since it allows trending and unit-root regressors. The results depend in a striking way on the economic climate of a particular country. In Balkan countries, which belong to less stable economies, the measures adopted by monetary authorities indeed brought about a structural break in exchange rate behavior. In more stable transition economies, such as those in Central Europe, the monetary steps tended to stabilize the exchange rate behavior. Finally, the exchange rates of the Baltic countries offer mixed results.Exchange rate, transition, structural change, monetary policy.

Development of Ownership Structure and its Effect on Performance: Czech Firms from Mass Privatization

This paper works with a broad data sample of Czech voucher-privatized firms during 1996 - 1999. It analyzes the development of ownership structure and consequently its effect on a firm's performance Ownership concentration had been quite high in 1996 and steadily increased. The single largest owner was found to be a decisive shareholder. Industrial companies have been the most stable shareholder and recorded the largest ownership gains. Ownership concentration alone does not explain a change in a firm’s performance and no industry sector was found to have a specific effect on it. We found evidence that several types of owners have an effect on certain performance measures. However, there does not exist support that type of owner has an effect on a firm's performance in general.ownership structure; firm's performance; voucher privatization; type of owner; panel data

Advancing the iid Test Based on Integration across the Correlation Integral: Ranges, Competition, and Power

This paper builds on Kočenda (2001) and extends it in two ways. First, two new intervals of the proximity parameter ε (over which the correlation integral is calculated) are specified. For these ε- ranges new critical values for various lengths of the data sets are introduced and through Monte Carlo studies it is shown that within new ε-ranges the test is even more powerful than within the original ε-range. A sensitivity analysis of the critical values with respect to ε-range choice is also given. Second, a comparison with existing results of the controlled competition of Barnett et al. (1997) as well as broad power tests on various nonlinear and chaotic data are provided. The results of the comparison strongly favor our robust procedure and confirm the ability of the test in finding nonlinear dependencies. An empirical comparison of the new ε-ranges with the original one shows that the test within the new ε-ranges is able to detect hidden patterns with much higher precision. Finally, new user-friendly and fast software is introduced.chaos, nonlinear dynamics, correlation integral, Monte Carlo, single-blind competition, power tests, high-frequency economic and financial data

Contagion Across and Integration of Central and Eastern European Stock Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data

We analyze interrelations between three stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe and, in addition, interconnections which may exist between Western European (DAX, CAC, UKX) and Central and Eastern European stock markets (BUX, PX-50, WIG20). The novelty of our paper rests mainly on the use of the five-minute tick intraday price data from the mid-2003 to the early 2005 for stock indices and on the wide range of econometric techniques employed. We find no robust cointegration relationship for any of the stock index pairs or for any of the extended specifications. There are signs of short-term spillover effects both in terms of stock returns and stock price volatility. Granger causality tests show the presence of bidirectional causality for returns as well as volatility series. The results based on a VAR framework indicate a more limited number of short-term relationships between the stock markets. In general, it appears that spillover effects are stronger from volatility to volatility than contagion effects from return to return series.contagion and spillover effects, market integration, European emerging markets, intra-day data

Macroeconomic Sources of Foreign Exchange Risk in New EU Members

We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and the observable macroeconomic factors is modeled using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach and a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model. We find that in post-transition economies real factors play a small role in determining foreign exchange risk, while nominal and monetary factors have a significant impact. Therefore, to contribute to the further stability of their domestic currencies, the central banks in the new EU member countries should continue stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal convergence with the core EU members, as nominal factors play a crucial role in explaining the variability of the risk premium.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64391/1/wp898.pd

Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia

This paper studies foreign exchange risk premium using the uncovered interest rate parity framework in a single country context. The analysis is performed using weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits in Armenian banking system. The paper provides the results of the simple tests of uncovered interest parity condition, which indicate that contrary to established view dominating in empirical literature there is a positive correspondence between exchange rate depreciation and interest rate differentials in Armenian deposit market. Furthermore, the paper presents and discusses a systematic positive risk premium required by the economic agents for foreign exchange transactions, which increases over the investment horizon. The two currency affine term structure framework is applied to identify the factors driving the systematic exchange rate risk premium in Armenia. At the end, possible directions for further research are outlined.“forward discount” puzzle, exchange rate risk, affine term structure models, foreign and domestic deposits, transition and emerging markets, Armenia